The college football season is upon us, and that means we will get our first taste of the expanded 12 team playoff format.
The 12 playoff participants include the five highest-ranked conference champions, which will receive automatic bids. With mass conference realignment taking place in the offseason, this gives a Group of Five team an opportunity to compete for the championship, something that was nearly impossible in the previous four team format.
The four highest-ranked conference champions will receive a first-round bye, while the remaining eight teams will attempt to play their way into the quarterfinals. The first-round games will be home games for the higher-seed team, and New Year’s Six bowls will begin in the quarterfinal round.
Before we get to playoff picks, here’s how we saw the Power Four conference championship games panning out (click each conference’s link to view full standings projections):
Big Ten: Ohio State over Oregon
Big 12: Utah over Kansas State
Based on our projections, the top four seeds in the CFP will be:
1. Georgia Bulldogs
Quarterback Carson Beck is a veteran now, and the supporting cast is as talented as ever. Plus, Kirby Smart is arguably the best coach in college football. The Bulldogs will face a brutal schedule, though, so it’s possible they could drop a game. Thy have Clemson, Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss on the calendar, and none of them are at home. In the end, they should still do enough to win the conference.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Our projections have the Buckeyes losing to Oregon in the regular season. But it’s hard to beat a team twice. Ohio State might be the most talented team in the country, as they dominated the transfer portal by adding Will Howard, Caleb Downs and Quinshon Judkins, among others. As their team chemistry develops, they should peak at the right time.
3. Utah Utes
Star quarterback Camreron Rising, who is now 25 years old, returns from injury for one last push at a national title. Quarterback play was abysmal last season for the Utes, so it will be refreshing for them to not have to worry about the position. Oklahoma State and Arizona are the only two ranked opponents on Utah’s schedule, so they might even run the table if they can stay healthy.
4. Clemson Tigers
Starting the season with Georgia isn’t ideal, but outside of that, their schedule is light. A home game against NC State and a road contest against Florida State are their two other notable matchups. Expect Dabo Swinney to have a rebound year after missing the playoffs in three consecutive seasons.
First Round Games
No. 12 Boise State Broncos at No. 5 Oregon Ducks
It’ll be a road game for the Boise State, but at least they’ll be playing on the West Coast. The Broncos are consensus favorites to win the Mountain West. An early test against Oregon should help them grow as a team, and they will look to beat the Ducks in a rematch at in Eugene. Running back Ashton Jeanty will look to replicate his performance last season where he posted 1,000 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards, the only running back in the nation to do so.
Compared to other Big Ten teams, Oregon’s schedule is light. Their only challenging road game is against Michigan, who likely won’t be as good as they were last year. Our regular season projections have the Ducks going undefeated in the regular season and losing a rematch to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. Will they lose a rematch against Boise State?
No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
These two teams faced off in last season’s Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, where Ole Miss overcame a half time deficit to win 38-25. Despite losing their leading rusher in Quinshon Judkins, the Rebels have lofty expectations this season with Jaxson Dart under center. A difficult SEC schedule awaits them, but Lane Kiffin should finally have his squad ready to compete on the big stage.
We have Penn State as the third Big Ten team in the CFP, but they’ll need their offense take some pressure off of the defense. With a year under his belt, quarterback Drew Allar should play with more confidence. Like Oregon, Penn State’s conference schedule is weak. Aside from a home game against Ohio State, traveling to USC is the next most difficult matchup for the Nittany Lions.
No. 10 LSU Tigers at No. 7 Texas Longhorns
If LSU can win their non-conference games against USC and UCLA, it will take pressure off of them heading into SEC play. Their schedule is still tough, but avoiding Georgia and Texas is a significant advantage. Plus, their games against Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma are all in Death Valley. The only real road test for the Tigers will be against Texas A&M. Assuming they win 2 of those 4 conference games, there’s a good chance it’ll be enough to send them to the playoffs.
Led by quarterback Quinn Ewers, Texas should be a force again after making the playoffs last season. A trip to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan in Week 2 will be a challenge, but their SEC schedule doesn’t include Alabama, LSU or Ole Miss. Our projections have them losing a rematch to Georgia in the SEC championship, but that doesn’t mean they can’t make a deep postseason run.
No. 9 Miami Hurricanes at No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Catholics vs. Convicts in the CFP? It doesn’t get much better than that, especially with first-round games being played on campus. With their soft schedule, Notre Dame has no excuse to miss the playoffs this year. Their toughest game is a home date against Florida State. Former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard will provide toughness and leadership for the Irish, and Marcus Freeman will look to prove that he can take the program to the next level.
Miami has flown under the radar this offseason but picking up quarterback Cam Ward and running back Damien Martinez gives them offensive firepower. Like Notre Dame, Miami will host Florida State. The Seminoles are the only ranked opponent on Miami’s schedule.
Official CFP Prediction
First Round
5 Oregon def. 12 Boise State
6 Ole Miss def. 11 Penn State
7 Texas def. 10 LSU
9 Miami def. 8 Notre Dame
Quarterfinals
1 Georgia def. 9 Miami
2 Ohio State def. 7 Texas
3 Utah def. 6 Ole Miss
5 Oregon def. 4 Clemson
Semifinals
1 Georgia def. 5 Oregon
2 Ohio State def. 3 Utah
CFP National Championship
2 Ohio State def. 1 Georgia
Projected National Champion: Ohio State Buckeyes
It’s now or never for Ryan Day and the Buckeyes. They only have one year with transfer quarterback Will Howard, and a one-two-punch of Treveyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins on the ground will open up the passing game. The defense should be as good as it was last year as well. Ohio State won the inaugural four-team CFP in 2014, so winning the first 12-team playoff feels right.
In the Shadows Sports 
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