AFC EAST

1. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
   • Wins: ARI, at HOU, TEN, at SEA, MIA, KC, SF, at LAR, NE, NYJ, at NE
   • Losses: at MIA, JAX, at BAL, at NYJ, at IND, at DET
   • SOS: 7
   • Analysis: Despite winning the AFC East in four consecutive seasons, the Bills have yet to appear in a Super Bowl and have been bounced in the divisional round twice in a row. They’re consistent in the regular season but can’t seem to get over the hump in the playoffs. Josh Allen led the league with 44 total touchdowns but also threw 18 interceptions, second-most in the NFL. Receiver Stefon Diggs is gone now, so Allen may feel freer as he won’t have to force feed him the ball anymore. Gabe Davis is also out, and the Bills replaced their two top wideouts with Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. The secondary will be overhauled, and the defense as a whole won’t be as talented as it has been in recent years. I still see them winning the division, but are they wasting Josh Allen’s prime?
2. New York Jets (10-7) Common Opponent Tiebreaker over Miami
   • Wins: at TEN, NE, DEN, BUF, at NE, HOU, at ARI, IND, LAR, MIA
   • Losses: at SF, MIN, at PIT, SEA, at MIA, at JAX, at BUF
   • SOS: 14
   • Analysis: The return of Aaron Rodgers is one of the top storylines heading into the season. The Jets haven’t made the playoffs in 13 years, much of which can be attributed to a history of bad quarterback play. The offensive weapons are there at the skill positions. Breece Hall is poised for a breakout year at running back, while Garrett Wilson leads a solid group of wideouts. The Jets were also third in total defense a year ago. If Rodgers can stay healthy, the Jets are certainly capable of making the playoffs and possibly even winning the division.
3. Miami Dolphins (10-7)
   • Wins: JAX, BUF, at NE, at IND, ARI, LV, NE, NYJ, SF, at CLE
   • Losses: at SEA, TEN, at BUF, at LAR, at GB, at HOU, at NYJ
   • SOS: 24
   • Analysis: Like Buffalo, Miami has had regular season success that they could not carry over into the postseason. Their 26-7 Wild Card loss to Kansas City was never close, but they were forced to play in harsh conditions at Arrowhead because they failed to close out the division. They somehow blew a three-game lead to the Bills with just five weeks remaining in the regular season. Fortunately, they’ll be potent on offense again this season and their defense should be among the best in the league. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will have weapons all around him, namely Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at receiver. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert return as one of the league’s best running back duos. The Dolphins have the easiest schedule in the AFC East, so perhaps this is finally the year they capitalize.
4. New England Patriots (2-15)
   • Wins: SEA, LAC
   • Losses: at CIN, at NYJ, at SF, MIA, HOU, JAX, NYJ, at TEN, at CHI, LAR, at MIA, IND, at ARI, at BUF, BUF
   • SOS: 8
   • Analysis: A new face will be on the sidelines for the Patriots this season. Jerod Mayo, a former New England player, will try to squeeze a few wins out of one of the NFL’s worst rosters. They drafted Drake Maye to be the franchise quarterback, but veteran Jacoby Brissett will likely start the season under center. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson is the best returning offensive player and will likely see a sizeable workload this season. The defense, led by tackle Christian Barmore and inside linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley, is better than they get credit for. They finished seventh in total defense in 2023, including fourth against the run. There are just too many question marks on offense, though, and a difficult schedule awaits them.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
   • Wins: LV, BUF, at CIN, WAS, at TB, at CLE, DEN, CIN, at LAC, PHI, at NYG, PIT
   • Losses: at KC, at DAL, at PIT, at HOU, CLE
   • SOS: 2
   • Analysis: Baltimore hosted the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last year, and after a stellar regular season, many felt that it was their chance to break through and make it to the Super Bowl. Lamar Jackson was named MVP for the second time and the defense allowed just 26 touchdowns. Unfortunately, even after holding the Chiefs scoreless in the second half, Baltimore couldn’t get the job done. They’ll look to rebound this season, as Jackson and receiver Zay Flowers have become a force in the passing game. The talent is there on both sides of the ball, but the Ravens will face a first-place schedule, and the AFC North will be the toughest division in the NFL. I expect them to pull through in the end.
2. Cleveland Browns (9-8) Division Record Tiebreaker over Cincinatti
   • Wins: DAL, NYG, at LV, LAC, PIT, at DEN, KC, at CIN, at BAL
   • Losses: at JAX, at WAS, at PHI, CIN, BAL, at NO, at PIT, MIA
   • SOS: 1
   • Analysis: The Browns were a pleasant surprise last season, winning 11 games and making the playoffs with an aging Joe Flacco at quarterback. Their defensive line and secondary are elite, and they were the top ranked overall defense in the NFL in 2023. That side of the ball isn’t the issue. If the offense can consistently put points on the board, the Browns will be a nightmare matchup for opponents. Deshaun Watson is expected to be fully healthy, but he has yet to prove that he’s still the same player he was in Houston. He’ll have veteran pass catchers David Njoku, Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy to throw to. Jerome Ford will start at running back until Nick Chubb is able to return from the gruesome knee he suffered in Pittsburgh last season. I have the Browns barely missing the playoffs, but their ceiling is high if they can put it together on offense.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
   • Wins: NE, WAS, at CAR, at CLE, PHI, LV, at LAC, PIT, DEN
   • Losses: at KC, BAL, at NYG, at BAL, at DAL, at TEN, CLE, at PIT
   • SOS: 17
   • Analysis: After quarterback Joe Burrow’s 2023 season ended prematurely due to injuries, he’ll be back healthy to help the Bengals try to get back to the Super Bowl. Compared to the other AFC North squads, Cincinnati has the easiest schedule. They lost more in the offseason than they gained, though. Running back Joe Mixon took his talents to Houston, Tyler Boyd found a new home in Tennessee, and star defensive tackle DJ Reader departed for Detroit. They replaced Mixon with Zack Moss and an injured Chase Brown. Fortunately, their talent at wide receiver overshadows the slim backfield, as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are a lethal combination. If the Bengals want to make the playoffs, they’ll need to stay healthy and take advantage of their schedule.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9)
   • Wins: LAC, DAL, NYJ, NYG, at WAS, BAL, CLE, CIN
   • Losses: at ATL, at DEN, at IND, at LV, at CLE, at CIN, at PHI, at BAL, KC
   • SOS: 3
   • Analysis: Which Russell Wilson are the Steelers going to get? He played well in the back half of last season but struggled mightily the year prior. If he doesn’t pan out, they’ll likely turn to Justin Fields. Once again, Pittsburgh’s strength will be its defense, as they added linebacker Patrick Queen and cornerback Donte Jackson in the offseason to complement star TJ Watt, who had 19 sacks last season. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren make up a quality backfield while George Pickens leads a slim selection at wide receiver. This is anyone’s division, but I think Pittsburgh is the least likely to emerge victorious due to the uncertainties on offense.

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston Texans (11-6)
   • Wins: at IND, CHI, at MIN, JAX, at NE, IND, DET, TEN, MIA, BAL, at TEN
   • Losses: BUF, at GB, at NYJ, at DAL, at JAX, at KC
   • SOS: 5
   • Analysis: Houston’s deadly offense added even more weapons in the offseason, as they brought in running back Joe Mixon from Cincinnati and receiver Stefon Diggs from Buffalo. After making the divisional round in C.J. Stroud’s first season under center, expectations are high this season. The Texans played a light schedule last season, but they’ll take a step up in competition this year with the fifth most difficult schedule in the NFL. Will Anderson Jr. established himself as an elite defensive end in his rookie season, and he’ll lead a defense that hovered around average for most of last season. Even with a tough schedule, the Texans are the most talented team in the AFC South and should take care of business.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)
   • Wins: CLE, at BUF, CHI, NE, GB, MIN, HOU, NYJ, TEN, at IND
   • Losses: at MIA, at HOU, IND, at PHI, at DET, at TEN, at LV
   • SOS: 9
   • Analysis: Maybe the Jaguars should move to London permanently. Last season, they won both games they played across the pond and will return this year for matchups against Chicago and New England. Jacksonville finished the 2023 season 9-8 and missed the playoffs by one game. For a roster littered with talent, many believe they have underachieved in recent years. The good news is that quarterback Trevor Lawrence will start the year healthy. The bad news for the Jags is that they play an even harder schedule in 2024, and they will go the entire season without playing consecutive home games. However, I think they’ll do just enough to capture the final playoff spot.
3. Indianapolis Colts (7-10) Strength of Schedule Tiebreaker over Tennessee
   • Wins: CHI, PIT, at JAX, BUF, at NE, TEN, at NYG
   • Losses: HOU, at GB, at TEN, MIA, at HOU, at MIN, at NYJ, DET, at DEN, JAX
   • SOS: 22
   • Analysis: We only have a small sample size of quarterback Anthony Richardson in the NFL, but in four games, he showed that he has the potential to be the next great dual threat quarterback. He tossed three touchdowns and rushed for four while committing just one turnover. The Colts will be getting star running back Jonathan Taylor back healthy as well, giving them one of the most electric backfields in the league. Their success hinges entirely upon whether their two stars can stay healthy. Indy won’t have the luxury of turning to serviceable backup Gardner Minshew this season. Instead, if Richardson goes down, they’ll have to rely on 39-year-old Joe Flacco. The Colts have one of the highest ceilings and one of the lowest floors, and I just can’t trust them enough to give them a playoff spot.
4. Tennessee Titans (7-10)
   • Wins: at MIA, IND, NE, MIN, at WAS, JAX, CIN
   • Losses: at CHI, NYJ, GB, at BUF, at DET, at LAC, at HOU, at IND, at JAX, HOU
   • SOS: 23
   • Analysis: Will Levis enters his second season as the Titans’ quarterback, and he showed plenty of potential last season despite being stuck with a subpar roster. In an effort to give their young quarterback some weapons, Tennessee grabbed running back Tony Pollard, as well as receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd in the offseason. Their overall defense was mid-tier last year, but they were the best in the league at stopping opponents inside the red zone. The Titans have the lightest schedule in the AFC South, so if their defense can perform respectably and their offensive additions work out, they could rattle off eight or nine wins. But I’m not sold on them yet, especially with three other talented teams in the division.

AFC WEST

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
   • Wins: BAL, CIN, at ATL, at LAC, NO, at SF, TB, DEN, at CAR, LV, LAC, HOU, at PIT, at DEN
   • Losses: at LV, at BUF, at CLE
   • SOS: 16
   • Analysis: Believe it or not, the Chiefs’ Super Bowl run least season came as a surprise to many football fans. They were the third seed and had to go on the road to Buffalo and Baltimore in order to escape the AFC. But when you have a generational talent like Patrick Mahomes as your leader, you’re always a contender. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, Kansas City is expected to be as good or better than they were a season ago. They return virtually everyone on defense and added pass catchers Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy on offense. The AFC West is awful outside of KC, so expect them to have a dominant regular season.
2. Las Vegas Raiders (7-10)
   • Wins: at LAC, CAR, PIT, KC, DEN, ATL, JAX
   • Losses: at BAL, CLE, at DEN, at LAR, at CIN, at MIA, at KC, at TB, at NO, LAC
   • SOS: 10
   • Analysis: The Raiders have one of the league’s best receivers, Davante Adams, in his prime. But they can’t get him the ball. That could change if quarterback Gardner Minshew can perform how he did in Indianapolis. Minshew beat out last season’s starter Aidan O’Connell for the job. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers could be a valuable asset for the offense if he can stay healthy. Antonio Pierce had a successful stint as interim coach last season, as they finished 8-9 after a slow start. Maxx Crosby and the Vegas defense are as talented as anyone, and they’ll need to play well to give their team a chance to win. I have them winning seven games, but they could steal more if they capitalize on the weaker division opponents.
3. Los Angeles Chargers (6-11)
   • Wins: at CAR, at ARI, NO, TEN, DEN, at LV
   • Losses: LV, at PIT, KC, at DEN, at CLE, CIN, BAL, at ATL, at KC, TB, at NE
   • SOS: 27
   • Analysis: Jim Harbaugh takes his talents to the West Coast after winning the national championship with the Michigan Wolverines in 2023. He’ll have promising young star Justin Herbert as his starting quarterback, but outside of that, not much else. Their best receiver may be Ladd McConkey, a rookie out of Georgia. Their running back depth chart is headlined by Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, neither of whom are regarded as lead backs at the NFL level. Harbaugh is an excellent coach, and with a decent defense, he might be able to squeeze six wins out of his squad.
4. Denver Broncos (5-12)
   • Wins: PIT, LV, LAC, CAR, IND
   • Losses: at SEA, at TB, at NYJ, at NO, at BAL, at KC, ATL, at LV, CLE, at LAC, at CIN, KC
   • SOS: 20
   • Analysis: Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been a pleasant preseason surprise for Denver. The 12th pick of the 2024 draft is coming off of an exceptional season at Oregon and has played with confidence each time he has taken the field. He’ll have a security blanket in veteran wideout Courtland Sutton, who caught ten touchdowns in 2023. Nix will also have chemistry with fellow Duck Troy Franklin. However, Denver’s roster is thin on both sides of the ball, and I can’t see them winning more than a handful of games, despite a relatively easy schedule. Maybe Sean Peyton and Bo Nix will surprise us, though.

Playoff Seeding

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Houston Texans
5. New York Jets
6. Miami Dolphins
7. Jacksonville Jaguars