The first two weeks of the NFL season have been full of surprises. Teams that were expected to content for the Super Bowl are still winless, while other rebuilding squads have notched two wins.

With Week 3 around the corner, it’s time to make some more picks.

AFC East foes will clash on Thursday Night Football as the New York Jets host the New England Patriots. We’re also treated to two Monday Night Football games this week, as the Jacksonville faces Buffalo and Cincinnati battles Washington.

For those who are new, ITS will be picking every game against the spread and designating one game as the “Lock of the Week.” We’ll keep track of our record. Every game will have a “confidence meter” that will be measured using a five-star system. One star shows low confidence, while a five-star rating is reserved for the Lock of the Week.

Last week, we went 9-7, bringing our record to 17-15 through two weeks. Let’s keep trending upward in Week 3.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

^1-1 New England Patriots at ^1-1 New York Jets (-6)

For the second straight week, Thursday Night Football will feature the AFC East. With Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out for the foreseeable future with a concussion, the division has opened up for either the Patriots or the Jets to challenge the Bills. New York is coming off of a narrow victory over the Titans in Week 2. Rookie running back Braelon Allen scored the game winning touchdown on a 20-yard rush late in the fourth quarter. Aaron Rodgers rebounded from his poor showing in Week 1, throwing for 176 yards and two scores. New England lost a heartbreaker in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks, but they once again exceeded expectations. They have covered the spread in both of their games, and running back Rhamondre Stevenson is having a breakout season. Though the Pats have played well, they’re in a tough spot this week against the Jets in prime time. It’s also New York’s home opener and Rodgers’ first game at MetLife Stadium since tearing his Achilles last season.

Pick: Jets -6 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^0-2 New York Giants at ^1-1 Cleveland Browns (-6)

After a hard-fought win over Jacksonville in Week 2, Cleveland has an excellent chance to snag a second straight win. Deshaun Watson had a slightly better outing against the Jags, accounting for 206 yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over. As long as the Browns offense can manufacture a few scoring drives, their defense can keep them in any game. There’s a good chance New York’s rookie sensation Malik Nabers won’t be as productive as he was against Washington. Nabers was targeted on 18 of Daniel Jones’ 28 pass attempts and compiled an impressive stat line of 127 yards and a touchdown. He’ll face a defense that hasn’t allowed more than five receptions to any receiver thus far. Six points is a lot for a Cleveland team that struggles to score, but picking the Giants simply isn’t smart at this stage.

Pick: Browns -6 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^1-1 Chicago Bears at ^0-2 Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

I predicted that the Colts would decimate the shorthanded Packers last week, and I was dead wrong. They lost 16-10, but the game was never close. Green Bay led by double figures for nearly three quarters until Anthony Richardson threw a garbage time touchdown pass to Alec Pierce. Outside of the Texans, the rest of the AFC South is a combined 0-6. Of those winless squads, Indianapolis has the best chance to notch their first victory this week. As we’ve seen, though, Chicago’s defense is no joke. They singlehandedly won the Bears the game against Tennessee in Week 1, and they largely stifled the Texans’ offense in the second half last week. Indianapolis is vulnerable against the run, so if the Bears can finally get the run game going, it may take some pressure off Caleb Williams. I’m going to pick the upset.

Pick: Bears +1.5 ⭐️⭐️

^0-2 Denver Broncos at ^2-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

Of all the teams in the NFL, the Buccaneers and Saints have impressed me the most. Tampa Bay didn’t have its best offensive game, but the Bucs were still able to steal a win against the Lions at Ford Field, which is no easy task. Denver, on the other hand, has struggled mightily on offense. Bo Nix scored a rushing touchdown in Week 1 against Seattle after the game was already out of reach, but outside of that, the Broncos haven’t found the end zone. We know the Bucs have a plethora of offensive weapons, so if Denver wants any chance in this one, they’ll have to figure it out offensively. The Bucs are rolling, and there’s no reason not to pick them at home against an inferior opponent in Week 3.

Pick: Buccaneers -6.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Lock of the Week 🔒

^2-0 Los Angeles Chargers at ^2-0 Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)

It’s incredible that one of these teams is going to move to 3-0 after both were picked to finish at or near the bottom of their respective divisions. Despite reaching the end zone just once on offense so far this season, Pittsburgh’s defense has carried them to two wins, allowing a combined 16 points to the Falcons and Broncos. Justin Fields hasn’t thrown an interception in either game after throwing 9 in 13 games last season. Like Pittsburgh, Los Angeles prides themselves on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 13 points in two games, fewest in the league. J.K. Dobbins has been on a tear since coming back from a torn ACL, rushing for at least 130 yards and a score in each game. Los Angeles seems to be able to move the ball at bit better than Pittsburgh but playing the Steelers on the road figures to be their biggest challenge yet. I’ll take Pittsburgh in what figures to be a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Steelers -1.5 ⭐️⭐️

^1-1 Philadelphia Eagles at ^2-0 New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

New Orleans seems to be a completely different team than they were in 2023. Alvin Kamara looks rejuvenated, scoring five touchdowns in two weeks. Derek Carr is playing with confidence, and he has found a new weapon in Rashid Shaheed. Philadelphia lost a step against Atlanta without star receiver A.J. Brown. Jalen Hurts struggled to push the ball downfield and has played mediocre football at best through two games, throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions. On the bright side, the addition of Saquon Barkley has added another dynamic threat to the offense. The Eagles’ defense has struggled at times in the first two weeks, and that isn’t a good sign against a surging New Orleans offense. I expect the Saints to stay hot at home.

Pick: Saints -2.5 ⭐️⭐️

^1-1 Green Bay Packers at ^0-2 Tennessee Titans (-3)

To the surprise of many, Green Bay took care of business against Indianapolis in Week 2 despite having lost quarterback Jordan Love the week prior. Josh Jacobs had a busy day, turning 32 carries into 151 yards. Backup quarterback Malik Willis didn’t have to do much, only throwing 14 passes. He completed 12 for 122 yards and a touchdown. The Packers picked off Anthony Richardson three times after intercepting Jalen Hurts twice in Week 1. Their five picks lead the NFL. A defense that specializes in takeaways could be troublesome for Titans quarterback Will Levis, who has thrown three interceptions and fumbled twice in two games. He and veteran receiver Calvin Ridley have developed great chemistry, but no other Titans receiver has even reached 50 total yards on the year. The Titans are favored at home, but I see this one going to the road team.

Pick: Packers +3 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^2-0 Houston Texans (-2) at ^2-0 Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota pulled off the home upset against San Francisco last week. Justin Jefferson’s 97-yard touchdown reception was the highlight of the game, but he was forced out of the game early due to a quad contusion. He is on track to play this week but may not be at 100%. C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans have already taken a stranglehold on the AFC South with victories in their first two games, as all other teams in the division are still winless. This is one of the more interesting games on the docket this week, and we could potentially see a shootout. The Vikings only gave up 17 points to the 49ers but allowed Brock Purdy to throw for 319. Sam Darnold has committed a turnover in each of his first two games while Stroud remains turnover free. This is an exciting matchup, and I trust Stroud and company to get the job done.

Pick: Texans -2 ⭐️⭐️

^1-1 Miami Dolphins at ^2-0 Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)

This is a terrible spot for Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins. Miami was already out of sorts with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, and now they’ll be playing in one of the league’s most hostile environments against a talented Seahawks team. Thompson will be aided by star wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but he’ll need to be able to distribute the ball. It’s doable, as Seattle’s defense has been porous at times. However, the Seahawks are coming off of a gritty road win against New England. Geno Smith threw for 327 yards and a touchdown, and D.K. Metcalf came back to life after a sluggish Week 1. I’d be surprised if Thompson could steal this game on the road in his first start of the year.

Pick: Seahawks -4.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

^0-2 Carolina Panthers at ^1-1 Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)

Las Vegas pulled off a monumental comeback victory on the road against Baltimore in Week 2. Trailing by double digits in the fourth quarter, the Raiders put together three consecutive scoring drives in the closing minutes. Gardner Minshew and Davante Adams connected for 110 yards and a touchdown after Las Vegas struggled to get their star wideout touches all of last season. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers has also emerged as one of the best at his position, catching 15 passes for 156 yards in his first two games. Carolina is a dumpster fire, and that’s probably an understatement. Bryce Young hasn’t played well, but the organization has done him a disservice. He has already played for three different head coaches and has had virtually no talent around him. Journeyman Andy Dalton will get the start this week, but I don’t see that changing much.

Pick: Raiders -5.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

^1-1 San Francisco 49ers (-7) at ^0-2 Los Angeles Rams

I’d be willing to bet that most people didn’t see these teams being a combined 1-3 heading into their Week 3 matchup. Both squads have been decimated by injuries. The 49ers are without Christian McCaffrey, arguably the best player in the league, indefinitely. Deebo Samuel is a game changer when he plays, but he’s rarely healthy. Los Angeles has already lost its top two receivers, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, to leg injuries. Running back Kyren Williams is the only remaining star for the Rams, and he’ll have to do some heavy lifting against one of the NFL’s best defenses for his team to have a chance in this one. Jordan Mason has been a fantastic replacement for McCaffrey, and the 49ers still have offensive weapons in Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. After a tough loss to the Vikings last week, San Francisco should bounce back.

Pick: 49ers -7 ⭐️⭐️

^1-1 Detroit Lions (-2.5) at ^1-1 Arizona Cardinals

Detroit has surprisingly struggled in its first two games, falling at home to Tampa Bay last week and nearly losing to the Rams in Week 1. Jared Goff only has one touchdown pass through two games, and he has been unable to get the ball to star tight end Sam LaPorta. On the flipside, the Cardinals picked apart the Rams in Week 2. Kyler Murray threw for 266 yards and three touchdowns, two of which went to rookie sensation Marvin Harrison Jr. Murray and James Conner are a lethal one-two punch out of the backfield, and the pair have combined for 288 rushing yards in two games. The momentum is undoubtedly on Arizona’s side, and they’ll be on their home turf against Detroit.

Pick: Cardinals +2.5 ⭐️⭐️

^0-2 Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at ^1-1 Dallas Cowboys

It’s hard to say which team needs this game more. Dallas was embarrassed by the Saints last week in a 44-19 loss, while the Ravens blew a double-digit lead to the Raiders in the final minutes of the game. Dallas’ loss was unexpected after looking phenomenal in a Week 1 road win against Cleveland. They gave up six consecutive touchdowns to the Saints and only scored three points in the second half. In my opinion, the Ravens’ 0-2 record doesn’t accurately describe how they’ve played. Lamar Jackson is off to a hot start, accounting for a whopping 687 total yards in two games. Derrick Henry seemed to find his footing against the Raiders, totaling 96 yards and a touchdown. Dallas is at home, but the winless Ravens are still the better team.

Pick: Ravens -1.5 ⭐️

^2-0 Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at ^1-1 Atlanta Falcons

The Chiefs could easily be heading into Atlanta with an 0-2 record, but they’re somehow 2-0. A pass interference call on fourth down bailed Kansas City out against the Bengals, allowing them to work the ball into field goal range and win the game as time expired. In Week 1, Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely caught what looked to be a touchdown at the end of regulation, and Jim Harbaugh immediately signaled for a two-point conversion. Upon review, Likely’s toe was out of bounds, giving the Chiefs the win. This will be Kansas City’s first road game of the year, and it comes against an Atlanta team that manufactured a game-winning drive to beat Philadelphia on the road in Week 2. Running back Bijan Robinson has been stellar, compiling 233 total yards through two weeks. I see this being a breakout game for Atlanta’s offense, and the Chiefs are bound to lose eventually.

Pick: Falcons +3.5 ⭐️⭐️

^0-2 Jacksonville Jaguars at ^2-0 Buffalo Bills (-5)

Weren’t the Bills supposed to struggle this year after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis? Well, that hasn’t been the case. Buffalo’s 65 points through two games rank third in the NFL and running back James Cook has taken pressure off of Josh Allen with his contributions on the ground. Cook has 198 total yards and three scores this season. Allen led the league in interceptions last season but has yet to throw one in 2024. While the Bills are surpassing expectations, the Jaguars have once again been disappointing. They failed to score in the second half against Miami and only put up 13 against Cleveland. Southern teams traveling to Buffalo usually don’t fare too well, and this game won’t be an exception.

Pick: Bills -5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^1-1 Washington Commanders at ^0-2 Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

Bengals receiver Tee Higgins’ status for this game remains uncertain. He was sidelined against the Chiefs with a hamstring injury. Cincinnati could use all the help they can get on the offensive side of the ball, as they are basically playing without any threat of the run. JaMarr Chase hasn’t been himself through two weeks, either. Washington and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels bagged their first win in a tight game against the Giants in Week 2, which should give them confidence moving forward. Daniels is turnover-free through two games and running back Brian Robinson Jr. looks better than ever. The Commanders should be optimistic about their future. I think Cincinnati wins this game, but I’m not confident that they’ll do it by more than a touchdown.

Pick: Commanders +7.5 ⭐️⭐️