The first three weeks of the NFL season have been wildly unpredictable. Just last week, Andy Dalton turned back the clock and led the 0-2 Panthers to a dominant victory over the Raiders, while Sam Darnold led undefeated Minnesota to a 34-7 win over a quality Texans team.

With Week 4 approaching, it’s time to make some picks.

This week’s slate begins with an NFC east showdown between the Cowboys and Giants on Thursday Night Football, and it will be capped off by a Monday Night Football doubleheader. The Titans will visit the Dolphins, and the Lions will host the Seahawks.

For those who are new, ITS will be picking every game against the spread and designating one game as the “Lock of the Week.” We’ll keep track of our record. Every game will have a “confidence meter” that will be measured using a five-star system. One star shows low confidence, while a five-star rating is reserved for the Lock of the Week.

We went 7-9 on picks last week, bringing our season record down to an even 24-24. We’ll try to get on the right side of .500 this time around.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

^1-2 Dallas Cowboys (-6) at ^1-2 New York Giants

I’m not sure the Cowboys are worthy of being six-point favorites on the road against any team. Dallas showed signs of life in the fourth quarter against Baltimore in Week 3, scoring 19 unanswered points and making the game competitive. However, their defense has been abysmal against the run. Alvin Kamara ran for 115 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2, and Derrick Henry rushed for 151 yards and two touchdowns last week. Devin Singletary isn’t on the same level as those backs, but he’s certainly capable of producing. The run game could open up opportunities for Daniel Jones to connect with his top target, Malik Nabers.

Pick: Giants +6 ⭐️⭐️

^0-3 Cincinnati Bengals (-4) at ^1-2 Carolina Panthers

Carolina found new life in Week 3 with Andy Dalton under center, beating the Raiders 36-22. Dalton went 26 of 37 for 319 yards and three touchdowns. Chuba Hubbard added 114 yards on the ground. On the other hand, the Bengals suffered the third consecutive loss in a shootout against the Commanders. Joe Burrow threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns and the backfield duo of Zack Moss and Chase Brown combined for 120 yards and a score. It would be incredible to see the Panthers continue to thrive with Dalton, but I think this is the week the Bengals finally cover.

Pick: Bengals -4 ⭐️⭐️

^1-2 Denver Broncos at ^2-1 New York Jets (-7.5)

This is a tough spot for Denver. They’re coming off of a dominant road victory against Tampa Bay, but New York’s defense is a different animal. The Jets held the Patriots to 139 total yards last Thursday, and Aaron Rodgers had the offense firing on all cylinders. Bo Nix has been rapidly improving, but he’s still prone to turnovers. I just don’t see how the Broncos score enough on this Jets defense to remain competitive.

Pick: Jets -7.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

^2-1 Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at ^2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It feels like this is a tricky game for both teams, and one that each team needs to win. The Bucs have won five of their last six games against the Eagles, including a 32-9 beatdown in last season’s NFC Wild Card. Philly beat New Orleans 15-12 in Week 3 but didn’t score a point until the fourth quarter. Tampa Bay was decimated 26-7 by an unsuspecting Denver team. This one seems like a complete toss up, but I’ll take Philadelphia solely because of Saquon Barkley.

Pick: Eagles -2 ⭐️

^0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars at ^2-1 Houston Texans (-6.5)

I want to say that this is a trap game for the Texans, but the Jags have shown no signs of life in their three losses. They were routed 47-10 by Buffalo last week, allowing Josh Allen to throw for 263 yards and four touchdowns. Houston will be motivated after a 34-7 loss to Minnesota, and C.J. Stroud is a superior passer to Allen. Jacksonville has surrendered 787 yards through the air and has yet to record an interception. Expect Stroud and the Texans to roll at home.

Pick: Texans -6.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^1-2 Los Angeles Rams at ^1-2 Chicago Bears (-3)

Despite being without star wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the Rams found a way to notch their first victory against the 49ers last week. Kyren Williams put the team on his back, accounting for 116 total yards and three touchdowns. Caleb Williams had his best outing for the Bears, throwing for 352 yards, two scores and two picks. However, Chicago has absolutely zero run game. It’s primarily due to poor offensive line play, but D’Andre Swift seems like a shell of his former self. He’s averaging 1.8 yards per carry, among the worst in the NFL. Chicago can certainly steal this game at home, but the smart play is to take L.A. with the points.

Pick: Rams +3 ⭐️⭐️

^2-1 New Orleans Saints at ^1-2 Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

It’s early, but this is a crucial game in the AFC South. The Falcons have narrow home losses to the Steelers and Chiefs, but went into Philadelphia and won. The Saints defeated the Panthers and Cowboys, two terrible defensive teams, before losing to the Eagles at home. This is another game that could go either way, but I think the Falcons will find a way to grab their first home win of the year. They simply can’t afford to fall to 1-3, and they’ve been battle-tested already.

Pick: Falcons -2.5

^3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at ^1-2 Indianapolis Colts

On paper, the Steelers are a nightmare matchup for the Colts. Pittsburgh has allowed just 214 rushing yards in three games and Indianapolis relies heavily on the run the kickstart their offense. Anthony Richardson has 9, 17 and 10 completions in his three games. I expect the Colts to have serious issues moving the ball in this game. Not only that, but Indy’s defense is atrocious. They rank 31st in the league in yards allowed with 398.3 and allowed Malik Willis and Caleb Williams to carve them up. Justin Field and the Steelers should shine. Honestly, Pittsburgh’s defense might even cover the spread by itself.

Pick: Steelers -1.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️🔒

^3-0 Minnesota Vikings at ^2-1 Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

It’s a bit surprising that the Packers are favorites in this game even though they are fresh off of a dominating showing against the Titans in Week 3. Minnesota’s defense has looked tremendous, and Sam Darnold has shown that he is capable of fulfilling the starting quarterback role. If Darnold can continue to be an effective game manager, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson and the rest of Minnesota’s weapons could make them a force to be reckoned with in the NFC. Jordan Love’s health is still in question for the Packers, but Malik Willis has shown promise. The game is at Lambeau, but getting the Vikings as underdogs here is a steal.

Pick: Vikings +2.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

^2-1 Washington Commanders at ^1-2 Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)

To me, this feels like a game where the Commanders may get exposed. The public likely assumes that Washington should continue to play well after beating Cincinnati on the road, but they have a short week and will be traveling across the country to play their second consecutive road game. Arizona isn’t quite ready to contend for a playoff spot yet, but they have shown that they can compete with the best teams in the NFL. They pushed the Bills to the brink in Week 1 and hung tough with the Lions in Week 3. Give me the Cards.

Pick: Cardinals -3.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^1-2 New England Patriots at ^1-2 San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

The Niners are the biggest favorites of the week at -10.5. That’s a lot of points in the NFL no matter how good you are, especially when Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are inactive. However, we’ve seen what San Francisco is capable of on their home field against AFC East teams. They took down the Jets 32-19 in Week 1 in a game that was never competitive. Now, after two straight losses on the road, the 49ers will be motivated to get back on track against New England. The Patriots were completely neutralized against the Jets in Week 3, mustering just 139 yards of total offense and putting up three points. This week, they’ll be facing a defense that is just as good, if not better than New York’s. It’s too early to say that this is a must-win game for San Francisco, but it definitely feels like it.

Pick: 49ers -10.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^1-2 Cleveland Browns at ^1-2 Las Vegas Raiders (-2)

Man, this is an awful game. Neither one of these teams looks like a playoff contender, and both offenses are completely inept. There’s visible frustration on the Las Vegas side after their blowout loss to Carolina, and it seems like Davante Adams is checked out. On the bright side, though, the Raiders have drafted an excellent young tight end in Brock Bowers. On the flipside, Cleveland has just about nothing to be happy about. There really aren’t any promising young pieces and they have no rushing attack. They’re stuck with Deshaun Watson, who looks nothing like he did in Houston. I would advise you to stay away from this game, but if I had to pick, I’d go with Las Vegas at home.

Pick: Raiders -2 ⭐️

^3-0 Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at ^2-1 Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City has escaped three close calls against quality opponents. Most recently, a missed pass interference call helped them seal a 22-17 win over Atlanta. They’ll play their first divisional game this weekend, and it’ll come against a Los Angeles team that was beaten and battered by Pittsburgh in Week 3. Derwin James will be serving a one game suspension against the Chiefs, and stars Joe Alt, Justin Herbert, Joey Bosa and Junior Colston may all miss this game. That’s only about half the list, too. Kansas City is 3-0 against the spread this season, and I expect that trend to continue in Week 4.

Pick: Chiefs -7.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^3-0 Buffalo Bills at ^1-2 Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

This is the game of the week, and for good reason. Baltimore could very well be sitting at 3-0, but narrow losses to Kansas City and Las Vegas put them in a 0-2 hole. They rebounded with a road win against Dallas last week, but it was closer than it needed to be. Dallas outscored the Ravens 19-0 in the fourth quarter but fell just short in their comeback attempt. Buffalo, on the other hand, has beaten their last two opponents with ease. They beat Miami and Jacksonville by a combined 58 points. The Ravens will be the Bills’ first quality opponent, though, and Baltimore needs to win this game to avoid falling to 1-3 in a difficult AFC North Division. There’s a good chance Pittsburgh moves to 4-0 this week, so I expect the Ravens to play well and keep pace.

Pick: Ravens -2.5 ⭐️⭐️

^0-3 Tennessee Titans at ^1-2 Miami Dolphins (-1)

We’re lucky to have a doubleheader on Monday Night Football this week because this one is a dud. With Tua Tagovailoa’s injury, there’s an argument to be made that these are the two worst teams in the NFL. Miami only scored a field goal against Seattle last week, and it was gifted to them after the Seahawks turned it over in the red zone. To add to the debacle, Skylar Thompson was injured, leaving either Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley to start at quarterback. Tennessee’s situation isn’t much better as Will Levis has been pitiful to start the season. He singlehandedly gave Chicago a win in Week 1 and never gave his team a chance against Green Bay in Week 3. Levis has thrown five interceptions in three games, and he has also fumbled three times. I have no idea who to pick in this game, but at least Miami has some offensive weapons. I’ll go with them.

Pick: Dolphins -1 ⭐️

^3-0 Seattle Seahawks at ^2-1 Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Seattle has taken advantage of a soft schedule to begin the year. They have wins over Denver, New England and Miami, and Bo Nix is the best quarterback they’ve faced so far. Geno Smith has thrown for three touchdowns and three interceptions in three games, so that’s nothing to marvel at. Seattle has a stellar wide receiver trio in D.K. Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett, but will continue to miss running back Kenneth Walker. However, I believe that Detroit is simply the better team. The one-two punch of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs is lethal, and Jared Goff has started to connect with Amon-Ra St. Brown again. Look out for the Lions.

Pick: Lions -3.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️