The UFC returns to the Delta Center in Salt Lake City for the third consecutive year, an arena that has hosted some of the most memorable main events in the organization’s history. Leon Edwards captured the welterweight title at UFC 278 with a fifth-round head kick against Kamaru Usman, and Justin Gaethje landed a head kick knockout of his own against Dustin Poirier at UFC 291.
UFC 307 features two title fights: Alex Pereira will defend his light heavyweight belt against Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event, and women’s bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington will face Julianna Pena in the co-main event.
The main card also features the legendary Jose Aldo battling Mario Bautista, as well as rising star Kayla Harrison, who looks to secure a title shot with a win over Ketlen Vieira. Kevin Holland and Roman Dolidze will open the main card in what promises to be an exciting bout.
Pereira, Aldo and Holland have all fought in Salt Lake City before and have experienced the altitude. Will this help them find success at UFC 307? Below, we make our full main card predictions.
15 Kevin Holland vs. 10 Roman Dolidze
This fight will be Holland’s 18th in the last four years, which is a remarkable feat. His most recent fight was a victory over Michal Oleksiejczuk where he was knocked down early but pulled off an improbable armbar.
Holland is a well-rounded mixed martial artist who can finish a fight in many different ways. In his UFC career, he has five submissions, five knockouts and four decision wins. Holland has found success at both welterweight and middleweight, but he’ll be fighting Dolidze at 185 pounds. Interestingly, Dolidze’s last fight was at light heavyweight victory over Anthony Smith.
Dolidze’s last middleweight win came in 2022, where he scored a TKO win over Jack Hermansson. It was his most impressive performance to date. He’s one of the most durable fighters in the UFC, but he will be at a significant reach and speed disadvantage against Holland. Both fighters don’t get finished very often, so I can see this one going to the scorecards, where I’ll give the edge to Holland.
Prediction: Holland via Unanimous Decision
2 Ketlen Vieira vs. 3 Kayla Harrison
In one of the least exciting divisions in the UFC, Harrison is the star the organization desperately needed. The two-time Olympian has a prestigious background in judo and has parlayed it into a successful MMA career. Her record is 16-1, and she made her first octagon appearance at UFC 300 against former champion Holly Holm. Harrison won by submission in the second round and only absorbed two significant strikes.
Vieira also hold a win over Holm, but it came by split decision. She hasn’t finished a fight since 2017 and often relies on her clinch game and wrestling to carry her to victory. That isn’t going to work in this fight. I can see Harrison winning this fight by either KO/TKO or submission, but I have a feeling she’ll end this one with vicious ground strikes.
Prediction: Harrison via KO/TKO, Round 1
10 Jose Aldo vs. 11 Mario Bautista
Two years ago, at UFC 278, Aldo made what many believed to be his final octagon appearance in a loss to Merab Dvalishvili. He was inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame in 2023 but elected to come out of retirement and finish his contract at UFC 301, where he earned a decision win over Jonathan Martinez. Since losing to Petr Yan in 2020, the 38-year-old has won four of his last five fights and proved that he still belongs at the top of the bantamweight division.
Bautista dropped two of his first four UFC fights, but he now holds a 14-2 record after winning his last six. His most recent fight was a dominant performance against Ricky Simon, one of the most durable fighters in the division.
Bautista lands 2.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Aldo’s takedown defense should help him keep the fight standing. Both men are excellent strikers, but Aldo will need to let his hands go if he wants to win this fight. He was heavily criticized for his tentativeness against Dvalishvili, and he tends to fight conservatively. On average, Bautista lands nearly twice as many significant strikes per minute compared to Aldo. This should be a competitive fight, but I think the younger fighter squeaks out a win.
Prediction: Bautista via Split Decision
C Raquel Pennington vs. 1 Julianna Pena
After 18 UFC fights, Pennington finally broke through and captured the belt with a win over Mayra Bueno Silva at UFC 297. She closed as a betting underdog in that fight and outstruck Bueno Silva 134-69 en route to a lopsided unanimous decision. Pennington was criticized for her “boring” performance, and some members of the media, such as Ryan Clark, advocated for the women’s bantamweight division to be abolished. This statement ultimately led to his removal from ESPN’s DC and RC podcast.
While I don’t believe that the UFC should get rid of the women’s bantamweight division, I will admit that this fight between Pennington and Pena is just delaying the inevitable. Kayla Harrison will likely defeat Ketlen Vieira and demolish the winner of this fight. Once she holds the belt, there’s a good chance Amanda Nunes comes out of retirement and challenges Harrison for the title. For now, though, I think Pennington retains the throne.
Prediction: Pennington via Unanimous Decision
C Alex Pereira vs. 8 Khalil Rountree Jr.
The internet seems to think that Pereira may be acting too casual and overlooking his opponent. Even prominent analysts such as Chael Sonnen are confident that Rountree will pull the upset. I couldn’t disagree more. That’s no disrespect to Rountree, as he has won his last five fights, four of which came by KO/TKO. His improvement over the last few years has been astounding to watch. His performance against Anthony Smith was his best to date, and Smith is lucky Rountree chose not to follow up with his vicious ground-and-pound.
Rountree knows how risky it is to strike with Pereira, but he has vowed to not shoot for a takedown at any point in the fight. In fact, he has never attempted a takedown in his entire UFC career. Rountree even claims to have a “secret technique” that he may utilize in this matchup.
However, no matter how confident you are in your striking, this is the wrong move against Pereira. He disposed of former champions Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka (twice) because both were too stubborn to mix up their attacks. “Poatan” has also beaten Jan Blachowicz, Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland, all of whom held the belt at one point. Blachowicz was the only one to attempt to wrestle Pereira, and he nearly beat him. Pereira escaped with a split decision victory.
Rountree’s last three wins have come against Dustin Jacoby, Chris Daukaus, and Anthony Smith. He hasn’t fought anyone at the top of the light heavyweight division, so this is a major step up in competition. I anticipate this fight lasting longer than people think, but Pereira’s pinpoint accuracy will ultimately win him the fight. All it takes is one shot. Perhaps we’ll see a third straight head kick knockout in a Salt Lake City main event.
Prediction: Pereira via KO/TKO, Round 3
In the Shadows Sports 
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