We’re a month into the 2024 NFL season, and October is when the true contenders start to emerge. Some teams, such as Minnesota and Pittsburgh, have surprised fans by getting off to hot stars. Others, like Jacksonville, are in utter disarray.

Four teams (Eagles, Lions, Chargers and Titans) are on bye this week, meaning there are 14 games on the schedule.

An NFC South battle between the Buccaneers and Falcons will headline Thursday Night Football, and Sunday’s slate will start bright and early with the Jets and Vikings facing off in London at 9:30 a.m. ET. The Saints will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Chiefs to cap off the week on Monday Night Football.

For those who are new, ITS will be picking every game against the spread and designating one game as the “Lock of the Week.” We’ll keep track of our record. Every game will have a “confidence meter” that will be measured using a five-star system. One star shows low confidence, while a five-star rating is reserved for the Lock of the Week.

Last week’s picks went 7-9, bringing out season record to 31-33. We’ll look to bounce back in a big way this week.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

^3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at ^2-2 Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

Tampa Bay has an opportunity to jump out ahead in the competitive NFC South. They have already scored impressive wins over Detroit and Philadelphia. Atlanta has been competitive in every game, losing by single digits to Pittsburgh and Kansas City, two quality opponents. However, Kirk Cousins has struggled to push the ball downfield, averaging just 216 passing yards per game. This game could go either way, but I’ll give the Bucs the edge with the way their offense has looked.

Pick: Buccaneers +1.5 ⭐️

^2-2 New York Jets vs. ^4-0 Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Last week, New York was upset by a Denver team that only put up 186 yards of offense. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been able to establish a connection with Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall has been underwhelming. On the flip side, Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings have been able to score at will, and outside of the second half against the Packers in Week 4, their defense has been stellar. The Jets simply haven’t given me enough confidence to pick them.

Pick: Vikings -2.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^1-3 Cleveland Browns at ^3-1 Washington Commanders (-3.5)

Washington has been on of the league’s pleasant surprises, and Jayden Daniels looks to be miles ahead of his fellow rookie quarterbacks. Through four games, he has accounted for seven touchdowns and thrown only one interception. The Browns are in shambles, losing in Week 4 to a shorthanded Raiders team. The Commanders should take care of business at home.

Pick: Commanders -3.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

^3-1 Buffalo Bills (-1) at ^3-1 Houston Texans

Two of the AFC’s best offenses will collide in this matchup, and it’s a pick ‘em game. Buffalo was routed 35-10 by Baltimore last week, while Houston escaped with a 24-20 win over Jacksonville. Both teams are 3-1, but each of their wins have come against teams that are .500 or worse. If Buffalo can utilize James Cook and not abandon the run game if they get down early, they’ll have a good chance to win. They don’t play well when they rely on Josh Allen’s arm. The Texans will likely be without star running back Joe Mixon once again. This is a toss up, as the odds suggest, but I’ll take Buffalo.

Pick: Bills -1 ⭐️

^2-2 Indianapolis Colts at ^0-4 Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

The Jags are the only winless team remaining after four weeks, and they’ve finally got a winnable game against a banged up Colts team. Jonathan Taylor is expected to miss time with an ankle sprain, while Anthony Richardson is questionable with an oblique injury. Jacksonville nearly took down the Texans in Week 4, but they allowed a 49-yard punt return that set up Houston’s game-winning touchdown. This should be a better game than people expect, and I think the Jags get on the board with a win.

Pick: Jaguars -3 ⭐️⭐️

^1-3 Miami Dolphins at ^1-3 New England Patriots (-1)

It’s hard to believe that, barring a tie, someone has to win this game. The Dolphins are completely disoriented after Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion, losing 31-12 to a pathetic Titans team. New England started the season with a road win over Cincinnati, but they’re 0-3 since, dropping their last two games by a combined 41 points. Despite their recent struggles, I’m going to pick the Patriots solely because southern teams don’t typically fare well in New England.

Pick: Patriots -1 ⭐️

^1-3 Carolina Panthers at ^2-2 Chicago Bears (-4)

After a rocky start, Chicago has started to play well. They competed on the road with a quality Texans team and beat the Rams at home last week. D’Andre Swift’s 165 scrimmage yards were a positive sign, as he hadn’t exceeded 50 in any game this season. The Panthers are more competitive with Andy Dalton under center, and Chuba Hubbard has played well in recent weeks. However, the Bears’ defense is a tough test, and I think Chicago picks up their third win of the season here.

Pick: Bears -4 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^2-2 Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at ^1-3 Cincinnati Bengals

This is a make or break game for the Bengals. They can’t afford to drop an AFC North home game and fall to 1-4. Cincinnati defeated Carolina in Week 4 for their first win of the season. Baltimore decimated Buffalo on Sunday night, and they seem to have figured out that the more they run, the better they are. The Bengals are 25th in the league against the run, which is concerning. Baltimore won both matchups against Cincinnati in 2023, and I expect that trend to continue.

Pick: Ravens -2.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^1-3 Arizona Cardinals at ^2-2 San Francisco 49ers (-7)

The 49ers have yet to beat an NFC team this season. Their two wins have come against the Jets and Patriots, and they’re already behind in the NFC West due to their loss to the Rams. Fortunately for San Francisco, Arizona is among the worst defenses in the league, ranking 18th against the pass and 28th against the run. The Cardinals are capable of putting up points, but they can’t seem to put together a complete performance. Give me the Niners.

Pick: 49ers -7 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^2-2 Las Vegas Raiders at ^2-2 Denver Broncos (-2.5)

It looks like Vegas will be losing star wideout Davante Adams for good after he requested a trade this week. The Raiders have excellent wins over Baltimore and Cleveland, but they underperformed against the Panthers and Chargers. The Broncos are coming off of a road victory against the Jets, a game in which they really didn’t play well offensively. There will be growing pains with rookie quarterback Bo Nix, but he’s a true competitor. This would be a massive win for Denver, and I think they’ll do enough to beat a Las Vegas team that is in the midst of injuries and trade speculation.

Pick: Broncos -2.5 ⭐️⭐️

^1-3 New York Giants at ^3-1 Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

The Giants have struggled to run the ball all season, and their only saving grace has been the connection between Daniel Jones and Malik Nabers. However, Nabers is expected to miss this weekend’s game with a concussion. Seattle is one of the most difficult environments to play in as a road team in the NFL, and without their best player, the Giants have their work cut out for them. Kenneth Walker looked fantastic for the Seahawks against the Lions in Week 4, scoring three touchdowns. Expect Seattle to win this one easily.

Pick: Seahawks -6.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

^2-2 Green Bay Packers (-3) at ^1-3 Los Angeles Rams

Green Bay may have found something in the second half against Minnesota. They lost the game, but they outscored the Vikings 22-3 in the fourth quarter. Jordan Love did throw three interceptions, but he also tossed four touchdowns. The Rams allowed a subpar Bears team to score 24 points last week, and without star receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Matthew Stafford’s options are limited. Kyren Williams will have to put the team on his back if the Rams want to compete this week, and I don’t see it happening.

Pick: Packers -3 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

^2-2 Dallas Cowboys at ^3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

The Cowboys outlasted the Giants last Thursday, but it wasn’t pretty. New York was able to move the ball in to Dallas territory several times but couldn’t find the end zone. They even had a chance to win the game after Brandon Aubrey’s missed 50-yard field goal with under a minute to go. Pittsburgh lost to Indianapolis last week, but Justin Fields played well, accounting for three touchdowns. I anticipate that the Steelers’ defense will be motivated to perform well after costing the team the game against the Colts. I also feel like Dallas, who plays indoors and on turf, will struggle in the elements.

Pick: Steelers -2.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

^2-2 New Orleans Saints at ^4-0 Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

You’re telling me an NFC dome team is going to come into Arrowhead and compete? I don’t think so. New Orleans bagged early wins against Carolina and Dallas, two putrid defenses. The Chiefs have one of the league’s best defenses, and they also have a guy named Patrick Mahomes. Rashee Rice will be out for the foreseeable future, as will Isiah Pacheco, but Mahomes somehow always makes the most out of what he’s got. There’s no doubt that this is the lock of the week.

Pick: Chiefs -5.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Lock of the Week 🔒