The sixth week of the 2024 NFL season is upon us, and it promises to be another thriller.

A Thursday night NFC West showdown between the 49ers and Seahawks will kick off the week, and the Jets will host the Bills on Monday Night Football in a crucial AFC East battle.

Four teams (Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings) are on bye this week, meaning there are 14 games on the schedule.

For those who are new, ITS will be picking every game against the spread and designating one game as the “Lock of the Week.” We’ll keep track of our record. Every game will have a “confidence meter” that will be measured using a five-star system. One star shows low confidence, while a five-star rating is reserved for the Lock of the Week.

Last week’s picks went 8-6, bringing out season record to an even 39-39. We’ll look to continue our winning ways this week.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

^2-3 San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at ^3-2 Seattle Seahawks

Not many people expected San Francisco to have a losing record through five games. In reality, they haven’t played that badly. They didn’t score in the second half against the Cardinals and blew a 14-point lead to the Rams. If it weren’t for those two poor halves, they’d be 4-1. Seattle has been reeling after winning three games against subpar teams, dropping a road game against Detroit and losing at home to a shorthanded Giants team. This is a road game for the Niners, but this feels like a must-win going into their bye week. Plus, after last week’s showing, I can’t trust Seattle.

Pick: 49ers -3.5 ⭐️⭐️

^1-4 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. ^3-2 Chicago Bears (-2)

Jacksonville finally got on the board with a win over the Colts in Week 5, and they’re looking for their second in a row. Winning this one on the road will be a tough task, as Chicago ranks seventh in the league in total defense. After a rocky start, Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift and the Bears offense has found its groove. They put up a combined 60 points in back-to-back wins over the Rams and Panthers after scoring just 53 in the first three games (many of which came from the defense). I think the Bears are well-rounded and better than people think, and they should get the job done at home.

Pick: Bears -2 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

^1-4 Cleveland Browns at ^2-2 Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)

Deshaun Watson’s days at Cleveland’s starting quarterback are numbered. He struggled mightily against a susceptible Washington defense in Week 5, throwing for just 125 yards and taking seven sacks. The Browns’ defense hasn’t done them any favors either, giving up over 20 points in four of five games this season. Philadelphia should be motivated coming off of a bye week and a blowout loss to the Buccaneers in Week 4. They’re 2-2 and likely view this as a must-win game. On a positive note, the Eagles will get star receivers A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith back for this matchup. 8.5 points is a lot, especially in the NFL, but I have no faith in the Browns on the road. In fact, I’ll make this my lock of the week.

Pick: Eagles -8.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Lock of the Week 🔒

^4-1 Washington Commanders at ^3-2 Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

Out of all the games this weekend, this is the one I’m most excited for. Jayden Daniels’ stellar quarterback play has made the Commanders into the NFL’s biggest surprise so far this season. They’ve won four in a row after a road loss to Tampa Bay in Week 1. Baltimore has a winning streak of their own, winning three straight after losses to Kansas City and Las Vegas in the first two weeks. The Ravens have struggled defensively at times, but their elite ground game with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry has been able to overcome that deficiency. I like the Ravens to win this game, but Washington should be able to score some points and keep it competitive.

Pick: Commanders +6.5 ⭐️

^4-1 Houston Texans (-7) at ^1-4 New England Patriots

Despite being 4-1 and tied for the top spot in the AFC, Houston is just 1-3-1 against the spread. Each of their four wins have come by single digits. However, New England is on a four-game skid after beating Cincinnati in Week 1. The Patriots are also 1-3-1 against the spread this season, so something’s got to give. The Patriots’ defense has kept them in games, but they ranked 31st in total offense. On the flip side, the Texans are sixth in total offense. Even though it’s a road game, the safe play is to trust C.J. Stroud and company to score enough points to cover.

Pick: Texans -7 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^2-3 Arizona Cardinals at ^3-2 Green Bay Packers (-5)

Arizona pulled off an improbable comeback against San Francisco in Week 5. Remarkably, they have won both of their have against division opponents, which gives them the second place tiebreaker over Seattle in the current NFC West standings. Green Bay also won in Week 5, escaping the Rams 24-19 after trailing at halftime. Both Arizona and Green bay have explosive offenses, so I anticipate a lot of points being scored in this matchup. Though his numbers are impressive, Jordan Love has been turning the ball over at a high rate since returning from injury. This one could go either way, but I have a feeling Arizona can keep it within five.

Pick: Cardinals +5 ⭐️

^3-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at ^2-3 New Orleans Saints

The Bucs head to New Orleans to play an AFC South road game for the second consecutive week. They lost a thriller to Atlanta in Week 5, allowing Kirk Cousins to throw for 509 yards. Baker Mayfield’s connection with star wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is as strong as ever, with the pair combining for 8 receiving touchdowns in five games. The Bucs have yet to run the ball efficiently with Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, though. New Orleans will be starting rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler in this game after Carr was injured in the Monday Night Football loss to Kansas City. This is a home game for the Saints, but I don’t think it will matter. They’re trotting out a turnover-prone rookie quarterback against a hungry divisional opponent with three more days of rest.

Pick: Buccaneers -3.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^2-3 Indianapolis Colts (-1) at ^1-3 Tennessee Titans

The AFC South is easily the worst division in football, but one of these teams is going to get a win. Tennessee is in disarray as they can’t figure out who to start at quarterback. They somehow beat Miami 31-12 while only passing for 110 yards and an interception, but that can be attributed to Miami’s injury situation. Indianapolis lost a close one to Jacksonville last week, but their offense has come alive with journeyman Joe Flacco at the helm. They scored more points in two weeks with Flacco than they did in three weeks with Anthony Richardson, who is expected to return this week. Indy may also be without receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. I’m taking the Titans because they are first in the league in total defense and will be playing an offense that can’t stay healthy.

Pick: Titans -1 ⭐️⭐️

^3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at ^2-3 Las Vegas Raiders

Speaking of teams in disarray, the Raiders are in shambles after a blowout loss to Denver in Week 5. They can’t run the ball and both of their quarterbacks turn the ball over far too often. The only bright spot for Las Vegas was rookie tight end Brock Bowers, who caught eight passes for 97 yards and a score. Pittsburgh lost in the final seconds to the Cowboys, but Justin Fields has continued his solid play in Russell Wilson’s absence. The Steelers’ defense intercepted Dak Prescott twice last week. Expect more of the same against a discombobulated Las Vegas offense.

Pick: Steelers -3 ⭐️⭐️⭐️

^2-2 Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at ^3-2 Denver Broncos

Denver will look for a second straight win over a divisional opponent when they host the Chargers, who are coming off of a bye week. Bo Nix played his best game as a pro for the Broncos last week, accounting for three touchdowns and leading his squad to a 34-18 victory over Las Vegas. The Broncos have now won three straight games, including road wins over the Jets and Buccaneers, both quality teams. The Chargers, on the other hand, have lost two straight games. They rank fifth in the league in total defense, though, and held Patrick Mahomes in check for most of their Week 4 matchup. I have a feeling this might be a week where Nix struggles and Denver can’t move the ball, so I’ll take L.A. in a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Chargers -3 ⭐️

^3-1 Detroit Lions (-3) at ^3-2 Dallas Cowboys

This game between two lethal offenses promises to be exciting. The Cowboys gutted out a road win against Pittsburgh in Week 5, but Dak Prescott and the offense have traditionally played much better at home. Detroit is coming off of a bye, but they hung 42 points on Seattle in their last outing. The Lions are the third-ranked offense in the league and should have success against a Cowboys offense that will be missing several key players. I’ll take Detroit to cover in a shootout.

Pick: Lions -3 ⭐️⭐️

^3-2 Atlanta Falcons (-6) at ^1-4 Carolina Panthers

Carolina had been playing better after veteran quarterback Andy Dalton took over for Bryce Young, but a 26-point loss to Chicago put them back at square one. They’ll take on a Falcons team that has been on an offensive tear. Kirk Cousins, Drake London and Darnell Mooney have been firing on all cylinders, and they haven’t even gotten star running back Bijan Robinson going yet. Atlanta ranks sixth in the NFL in passing yards per game with 260.6. The Falcons should snag their third consecutive AFC South win against the Panthers.

Pick: Falcons -6 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

^1-4 Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at ^2-3 New York Giants

The Bengals should have beaten the Ravens in Week 5. There’s no other way to shape it. They led by 10 points late in the fourth quarter, and Evan McPherson missed a 53-yard game-winning field goal attempt in overtime. On the flip side, the Giants went into Seattle and took down the Seahawks without their best offensive weapon, Malik Nabers. Tyrone Tracy was spectacular in his first game as New York’s lead back, rushing for 129 yards on 14 attempts. Nabers’ status is still up in the air for this contest, but the Giants have proved that they can compete with the best, healthy or not.

Pick: Giants +3.5 ⭐️⭐️

^3-2 Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at ^2-3 New York Jets

With James Cook and Khalil Shakir both questionable to play in this game, the Bills are in a bad spot. They’ve lost two in a row after three wins to start the season and will face a Jets team that is in desperate need of a win. New York defeated New England 24-3 in their last prime time home game in Week 3. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen will need to be more productive on the ground after totaling just 74 rushing yards in the last two games. The good news for the Jets is that Buffalo is among the worst in the league against the run, ranking 26th. I expect New York to show up in front of their home fans.

Pick: Jets +2.5 ⭐️⭐️⭐️